How can we stop Covid lockdowns.

[How irritating. I wrote my reply, but the system didn't think I was logged in. Which I obviously was, indeed with 2FA. So in an attempt to post I got bounced to "Welcome! Edit your profile!" Thanks, folks. I'll pass on the explanation, thank you. Yes, the new fonts suck. Especially for those of us whose eyesight is not as good as it was decades ago. Larger, and thicker, please.]

Ad 1. There is mutate and there is mutate. Current vaccines targeted Spike, and Spike mutates more than we'd like. Novavax's vaccine targets the Mpro protease, and I understand there is only one mutation of that known. There is obviously value in attacking parts of SARS-CoV-2 that are much more slowly mutating. I suspect all of the big players are looking at vaccines that target such more slowly mutating parts of SARS-CoV-2. The big question is and will be: for how long vaccines confer protection. With two doses of the current offers (one of Janssen), the answer seems to be three months and then waning for the antibody response (there is hope that T-cell activation lasts longer). THe UK actually knew that in August 2020 (BMJ article, which also noted that a third jab gets it right back up). With a third jab, we'll see, but it might well be at least six months. If we crank up to a year, then a once-a-year jab is manageable, as it is for flu at the moment. 

Ad 2. Yes. Jeremy Farrar and Bill Gates and Gordon Brown have been saying for ever and ever to get the vaccines out there to everybody; the logic is impeccable. They have also pointed out that it is much cheaper than the economic downsides of continuing new waves. AstraZeneca has done its bit.  But we are getting lucky with antivirals, now. Molnupiravir and Paxlovid have just gained EUA in the US and they are approved in GB and EU also. Eric Topol thinks Paxlovid "changes everything." If you are in the early stages of Covid, it's a five-day pack of 2 pills twice a day: Pf-07321332 and ritonavir. 90% effective at avoiding hospitalisation. Molnupiravir, by contrast, only appears to be 30% effective, but if you are one of the 1-in-3 for whom it works, you'll be really happy (except of course you won't know). AstraZeneca also has an oral antiviral on the way that looks very promising. 

So, if we can manufacture this in quantity, fast enough, one can envisage a home medicine cabinet consisting not just of thermometer, pulse oximeter, antiseptic cream, rubbing alcohol and sticking plasters (as I hope we all have), but also including LAT and Paxlovid. 

Ad 3. No. No, no no. LAT tests in every home, please, and used when you think you have symptoms, or you've been in contact with someone who's got sick and/or tested positive. Isolate as far as possible and take your Paxlovid. There is currently some evidence that virus shedding is thereby much reduced, which also reduces your infectivity. Who knows - maybe two or three days will be enough? That is less than what happens with a bad cold or the flu. 

Ad 4. No. No no no no no. What is happening *now* in ICU reflects what happened 3 weeks ago in society. You'll be making decisions you would have need to have made three weeks previously. That is, in some sense, the entire story of government policies on Covid-19 since December 2019, all over the world (in various flavours).

Nice post, BTW

Duuuuh The UK knew about third jabs in August 202*1*, not 2020, obviously.

Duuuuh The UK knew about third jabs in August 202*1*, not 2020, obviously.