Can I point out that every single year we get a warning that there are going to be blackouts next winter.

Can I point out that every single year we get a warning that there are going to be blackouts next winter.

And every year we're told the weather is getting worse. 

Jon Steward I'm thinking of taking bets on how long it takes before the Daily Wail gets to use its typical 'Britain set to experience polar freeze this winter' headline this year. It's a foregone conclusion that they will, but the timing is always negotiable. 

Yes we do.

Hopefully most members of these forums can decide if the warnings are simply to sell newspapers, or if the ACTUAL RISKS are significant.

My view is that the risk IS significantly increased this winter.

It is an observed fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine. It is an observed fact that about half of our electricity is from burning gas.

It is an observed fact that UK natural gas storage is very limited indeed. 

It is therefore a reasonable deduction from the above facts, that we face an increased risk of power cuts this winter. A lot depends on the future actions of putin, which are unknown.

In previous years,  news media warned of power cuts, and there was in my view SOME risk but less than is the case this year. In previous years the risk was that demand might exceed available generating capacity. Not very likely but it could have happened if an unusual number of power stations had broken, or if extreme weather had increased demand.

Don't panic Lisa, 

We're still gradually warming. (almost up to the medieval warm period temperatures)

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/01/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2022-0-17-deg-c/

If it does turn cold this winter and the lights go out we can hug our pets as Bojo suggests.