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The role of wind turbines for the future?

Aaron O'Sullivan

Project drawdown - onshore wind turbines as ONE solution to drawdown emissions

"Wind power plays a large and essential role in any long-term projections of a low-carbon future. It does not require mining or drilling for fuel, so its costs are not susceptible to fluctuations in fossil fuel prices.

One concern with wind electricity is intermittency. Wind speeds vary on a seasonal and hourly basis, requiring back-up power or storage at certain times to meet electricity demand and potentially investments and improvements in grid infrastructure and the flexibility of power systems. Both studies and real-world experience suggest these investments are manageable and cost less than fossil fuels when externalities (health and environmental impacts) are taken into account. Further, regions that do not yet have a centralized electric system designed around fossil use could easily design a flexible or distributed electricity system to take advantage of this resource.

Wind power capacity is projected to continue growing steadily with or without enabling climate policies. However, deployment could be accelerated by policies that put a price on carbon emissions, feed-in tariffs, renewable portfolio standards encouraging renewable energy use, public research and development to help advance the technology and further lower costs, and financial incentives such as production credits and tax breaks."

Onshore Wind Turbines | Project Drawdown

Project drawdown - offshore wind turbines as ONE solution to drawdown emissions

"Wind power plays a large and essential role in a low-carbon future: wind has large capability and is globally available, and the outputs of wind and solar are complementary in many regions of the world. Wind does not require mining or drilling for fuel, and its costs are therefore not susceptible to fluctuations in fossil fuel prices.

The growth of offshore wind could be aided by renewable energy and portfolio standards that mandate a certain level of renewable use. Wind developers could also benefit from regulatory stability, such as feed-in tariffs that guarantee a certain rate of return on wind energy and tax incentives that encourage investment by helping offset development costs. Public research and development can also help decrease costs, particularly for this immature technology. Technology knowledge transfer could help spread wind power across borders."

Offshore Wind Turbines | Project Drawdown

Going Green (Onward)

The Renewables Obligation and Contracts for Difference schemes have also encouraged investment in renewables, driving down the cost of wind and solar to the point that renewables are now the cheapest form of new electricity generation. (BEIS electricity generation cost report (2020))

Going Green Report from Onward (Think Tank ) - Going-Green.pdf (ukonward.com)

Octopus energy launches it's 'fan club' to discount unit prices when turbines are generating nearby

An interesting development I noticed recently was a discount if you're living near to a turbine 

"Octopus customers living near our local fans can enjoy cheaper 100% renewable electricity whenever the turbines are spinning.

Join Octopus Fan Club and get:

100% renewable electricity from your local Fan!
20% off your unit rate whenever your turbine is spinning and you're using electricity
50% off your unit rate when the wind picks up and the green electrons are really flowing"

Introducing Octopus Fan Club: Local green energy for your home | Octopus Energy

International Energy Agency Outlook on Wind Progress

There are challenges to be overcome though, more so in the areas surrounding storage, which is where something like Power Potential from the National Grid could play its part. 

Power Potential | National Grid ESO

Here's the close down report Power Potential (Transmission & Distribution Interface 2.0) project close down report (nationalgrideso.com)

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  • 0

    Aaron,

    A good challenge of the Norwegian document so lets look at some numbers. This is all taken from the official Dogger Bank website:

    https://doggerbank.com/press-releases/dogger-bank-wind-farm-a-and-b-reaches-financial-close/

    The project is designed in three similar phases but I will just look at one phase.

    Installed capacity 1.2 GW

    Expected annual output 6 TWh

    Cost £3 Billion

    Strike price £40 per MWh.

    Expected Service life not mentioned.

    Nameplate output 1.2 x 8760 GWh per year =  10 512 GWh per year = 10.5 TWh per year.

    An expected annual output of 6 TWh gives a capacity factor of 57%. Is this realistic?

    What will they earn at the strike  price?

    6 TWh at £40 per MWh  = £240 Million per year.

    Straight payback of £3 Billion in 12.5 years.

    So with no costs for maintenance, no interest or dividends paid and a very optimistic capacity factor there is a 12.5 year payback on an asset with a 20-25 year lifespan (no one really knows).

    I think that the Norwegian paper is probably valid. To be financially viable the strike price probably needs to be doubled, which takes it into Hinkley Point C territory.

     Please check my numbers, I am very good at dropping a factor of 10 here and there.

  • 0 in reply to Roger B

    Honestly, I don't know. 

    But I view it in comparison to a coal, gas or oil field as a more promising solution and I think ultimately that's where the market is heading. 

    I did find this though in terms of returns:

    "This analysis reviews and synthesizes the literature on the net energy return for electric power generation by wind turbines. Energy return on investment (EROI) is the ratio of energy delivered to energy costs. We examine 119 wind turbines from 50 different analyses, ranging in publication date from 1977 to 2007. We extend on previous work by including additional and more recent analyses, distinguishing between important assumptions about system boundaries and methodological approaches, and viewing the EROI as function of power rating. Our survey shows an average EROI for all studies (operational and conceptual) of 25.2 (n = 114; std. dev = 22.3). The average EROI for just the operational studies is 19.8 (n = 60; std. dev = 13.7). This places wind in a favorable position relative to fossil fuels, nuclear, and solar power generation technologies in terms of EROI."

    Meta-analysis of net energy return for wind power systems - ScienceDirect

    It's probably worth noting how long the turbines last too in terms of maintenance and performance, found some data on that here. 

    Wind Turbine Performance Decline with Age. - EBSCO

    "The definition of ageing has fleeting borders because the performance decline is observed to impact differently the various wind turbines: Most wind turbines are observed to have a decline rate, which is almost negligible and few turbines (with hydraulic pitch control, as far as the results in the literature at present support) are observed to have remarkable losses with respect to the ideal yield. "

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  • 0 in reply to Roger B

    Honestly, I don't know. 

    But I view it in comparison to a coal, gas or oil field as a more promising solution and I think ultimately that's where the market is heading. 

    I did find this though in terms of returns:

    "This analysis reviews and synthesizes the literature on the net energy return for electric power generation by wind turbines. Energy return on investment (EROI) is the ratio of energy delivered to energy costs. We examine 119 wind turbines from 50 different analyses, ranging in publication date from 1977 to 2007. We extend on previous work by including additional and more recent analyses, distinguishing between important assumptions about system boundaries and methodological approaches, and viewing the EROI as function of power rating. Our survey shows an average EROI for all studies (operational and conceptual) of 25.2 (n = 114; std. dev = 22.3). The average EROI for just the operational studies is 19.8 (n = 60; std. dev = 13.7). This places wind in a favorable position relative to fossil fuels, nuclear, and solar power generation technologies in terms of EROI."

    Meta-analysis of net energy return for wind power systems - ScienceDirect

    It's probably worth noting how long the turbines last too in terms of maintenance and performance, found some data on that here. 

    Wind Turbine Performance Decline with Age. - EBSCO

    "The definition of ageing has fleeting borders because the performance decline is observed to impact differently the various wind turbines: Most wind turbines are observed to have a decline rate, which is almost negligible and few turbines (with hydraulic pitch control, as far as the results in the literature at present support) are observed to have remarkable losses with respect to the ideal yield. "

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