The problem here is that government is all about Sound Bites, Position Statements and Virtue Signaling.  The government wishes the UK to become a global leader in semiconductor technology. They have put three quite different but not necessarily mutually exclusive goals.

- Grow the domestic sector (Industry is important)

- Mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions (local supply or better supply chain management)

- Protect our national security (control the IP)

All these require significant engineering solutions but current government contains no engineering.

As I have previously said here regarding Green solutions:

https://engx.theiet.org/f/discussions/29789/how-can-we-develop-an-effective-sustainable-energy-strategy-that-also-ensures-a-just-transition

These goals need to be looked at like Capital Expenditure Requests in industry:

- What is the objective?

- What is the background to this request?

- What is the proposed solution?

- What are the time scales?

- What resources are required?

- What is the cost?

- What is the payback or other justification?

- What are the alternatives?

- Why were they rejected?

All these points need to be supported with data and calculations.

Without sufficient STEM resources in government to answer these questions nothing will actually happen. The challenge for the IET is to get STEM into government.

Sorry, Roger, didn't see your post before I sent my reply to Mike. Thanks for posting - they are all good questions!

Agree - there are too many arts graduates and not enough folk who understand when to use complex numbers or a Bessel function in the teams advising government policy. That would be forgivable, if they actually  realised there was something important they did not know, and were prepared to 'phone a friend' instead of just bluster. But no, it all runs on the hoof.

A classic example of innumeracy must be the Wales 20mph speed limit - apparently the 88million cost will be borne by the Welsh govt. says the news. That is presumably the cost  of roadsigns and enforcement. But overlooks the far bigger cost that some folk on the road, perhaps half, are not just driving for fun, and are being paid wages to get somewhere.
Even if we assume these folk only earn minimum wage, and that is not true, as some like doctors and engineers and business types will be in the 'pound a minute' category then say 5 million drivers (it is Wales after all) even at a cost of just 10p a minute per driver of potentially productive working time lost,  (yes, that really is £500k per minute lost) now even assuming only 2-3 minutes added to every hour of driving will cost that £88 million to the Welsh economy over and over every few days. (and if you think a life is worth £1 to £2 million or so, then you need to save one life every few minutes to justify that loss. There are not enough people living in Wales to knock over to manage that let alone enough being killed at 30mph now)

Clearly no mathematicians on that team either.

Mike.

Agree - there are too many arts graduates and not enough folk who understand when to use complex numbers or a Bessel function in the teams advising government policy. That would be forgivable, if they actually  realised there was something important they did not know, and were prepared to 'phone a friend' instead of just bluster. But no, it all runs on the hoof.

A classic example of innumeracy must be the Wales 20mph speed limit - apparently the 88million cost will be borne by the Welsh govt. says the news. That is presumably the cost  of roadsigns and enforcement. But overlooks the far bigger cost that some folk on the road, perhaps half, are not just driving for fun, and are being paid wages to get somewhere.
Even if we assume these folk only earn minimum wage, and that is not true, as some like doctors and engineers and business types will be in the 'pound a minute' category then say 5 million drivers (it is Wales after all) even at a cost of just 10p a minute per driver of potentially productive working time lost,  (yes, that really is £500k per minute lost) now even assuming only 2-3 minutes added to every hour of driving will cost that £88 million to the Welsh economy over and over every few days. (and if you think a life is worth £1 to £2 million or so, then you need to save one life every few minutes to justify that loss. There are not enough people living in Wales to knock over to manage that let alone enough being killed at 30mph now)

Clearly no mathematicians on that team either.

Mike.

say 5 million drivers (it is Wales after all)

Is this a different Wales to the one I grew up in? As I recall the total population is nor much more than half that number - and not everyone will drive (far from it) - I suppose the number might be increased a little by Saesneg drivers coming across the bridge or dyke, but I would have thought  that would have been pretty much balanced by Welsh drivers going the other way. Those actually being paid while driving will be a small proportion of the total as well (knock off the school run and shopping/leisure traffic and how much is left on restricted roads?) There might even be an effect of slower travel times encouraging the use of more local facilities.

Costs aren't just associated with road deaths either - treating seriously injured costs the NHS (and insurers) no small fortunes - impacts at 20mph contain less than half the energy of 30mph ones (kinetic energy E ∝ mv²) - so likely much less damage all round.

Crunching numbers is certainly necessary - but choosing the right numbers comes into it as well.

   - Andy.

Quite right - Wales is even more empty than I had casually assumed - having now checked, apparently there are  only 3.1 million residents, and ~ 1.6 million registered cars on 21 thousand miles of road.  Cardiff is the largest city, with half a million occupants and is one of the fastest growing settlements in Wales.  So lets assume  each day 200,000 drivers perhaps 13%,.  are on the road while at work earning Welsh minimum wage of 11p per minute, and each lose 2 or 3 minutes per day to the reduced speed.

I agree it looks less spectacularly uneconomic now, as we are losing perhaps £30,000- 50,000  per day to lost labour.

But then there are not that many accidents to consider

https://www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/statistics-and-research/2023-06/reported-road-casualties-2022-681.pdf

In the context of those figures  'seriously injured' equates to needing hospital treatment, as opposed to a minor injury treated at the roadside, and as such has a very wide range from needing a dressing and go home same or next day, to weeks in intensive care and or permanent disability.

Mike.