I think its a difficult thing to predict. How could have predicted where we are now , say 50 years ago?

The one thing I would say, is that its likely to be driven by the growth markets. That isn't western Europe and the US those are mature markets. We are already seeing some very capable cars coming out of China (and can be higher quality then some from established makes).

Fusion power will definitely be an enabler if anyone can make it work since much of the issue is energy.

What you can rely on is that the current technologies will keep on progressing, electric range will improve, charging times will drop, the ability of a car to self-drive will keep on improving.

Its interesting that you pick up on imports of EVs from China, because I suspect that 100% of European car makes source Chinese made parts and its only assembly that occurs in Europe (I know for sure that this it the case for some makes). So there isn't much difference in shipping a car if you are already shipping most the parts.

Now who remembers the electric milk float which was pretty common once upon a time?

Hello Mike:

Strange that you mentioned drivers licences- I just came back from renewing my Florida drivers licence. If one is over 80 years old one has to take a new vision test. Mine is also endorsed for driving a motor cycle.

Driver licences used to be issued specifically to the type of car you were driving (automatic or manual).

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida    

Hello Mike

My wife lived on farm and was driving a tractor well before the age of 16.

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay FL 

The other key to the Swiss recycling system is that you have to pay to dispose of anything that cannot be recycled. It either goes in a special bag that you have to buy or in a normal bin bag with a special sticker again that you have to buy, 35 litre CHF 0.90. Anything too big for that has to be taken to the local recycling centre where they take it at CHF 0.40 per kg with a minimum charge of CHF 2.

There are 'Rubbish Police' who will check incorrectly disposed of rubbish and if they can identify it as yours you will be fined.

Busted! On patrol with the Swiss ‘rubbish police’ - SWI swissinfo.ch

Peter,

Although it would make me unpopular, I feel that there should definitely be some controls on older drivers. We already have controls on new drivers (typically younger) and there is a proposal to tighten this further. But the accident rate also goes up as you get older.

It should be noted that there are perfectly competent older drivers - Fangio was competitively driving well into his later years. So age  alone shouldn't ever disqualify you from driving.

Technically, if you are found to not have correct eyesight and you are involved in an accident, then you are likely to get prosecuted, but we really should be taking preventative measures (FMEA anyone).

But yes, currently in the UK, if you pass your test driving an automatic, you are limited to driving automatics only. Someone with a manual license can drive either. There are also other categories that you have to apply for and potentially pass a test for, such as bikes, buses, trucks. You are no longer granted the ability to drive anything just by passing a car test.

Hello Mike"

It is now nearly impossible to buy a manual transmission car in the US.

I had to give my son special lessons to teach teach him, when he got an old (imported) British mini.

Also the other problem was the steering wheel was on the UK side 

Is the UK going to have special driving licences for EV's?

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida 

There are compulsory health checks for some drivers in the UK as they age.
for a heavy vehicle - over 7.5tonnes, After the driver's 45th birthday, an HGV medical is required every five years until the age of 65, when a medical examination will be required every year.
For cars as that is only 3,5 tonnes + 3,5 tonne trailer max,  it is easier there is no requirement to take a medical test but beyond age 70, applicants must formally declare that they are fit and healthy to drive and their eyesight meets the minimum requirements for driving. In practice this should involve a chat with the doctor and the optician  A record of a medical examination is required if those over 70 want to drive a medium-sized goods vehicle or minibus.

I think the main reason for not making it more formal, is the fact that  we seem to struggle with workload for doctors as it is, and folk are told, when put on new medication or being discharged from hospital , if they should not drive. (as happened to my mum after a stroke for example - driving licence never removed, just suspended until she recovered, which in practice she never did, so she never drove again.)
Mike

no - a test taken in an EV counts as automatic. It depends what vehicle you rock up in to the test centre. Having recently tought both of mine to drive, one age 17, and the other age 19 (covid messed up many things, and test appointments was one) they just went in our normal manual car.

Attitudes vary by continent - I have driven an automatic car, on holiday, in south america..... not here. Our neighbour has one, but she has a medical problem with her legs.
Mike.

Hello Mike:

When I took the UK car divers test when I was in my teens, they had a requirement to have an emergency stop test.

The examiner banged on the dash board for one to stop. In my case the examiner didn't realize that we were on "back ice" at the time.

When I later took my UK motorcycle test the examiner watched me go around from the pavement.

For the emergency stop he walked out into the road- However he took care to test me when he was a very long distance away from me.

Do they still do the stop test?

Peter 

Palm Bay FL 

Hello Mike:

There is a population group that is not being provided with adequate personal transport options- seniors!

If a self driving (upon demand) EV based taxi type service was available it would  be supported here in the US if priced correctly.

Most seniors are already offered a limited number of free trips to go to medical appointments. 

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay FL 

Very much so  - though the way the car test sylabus is structured, there are a set of standard 'manouvres' every learner must know - E-stop is one, so is reverse parking, parallel parking on the street, turning the car (the old '3 point turn') and other things like driving by satnav or roadsigns,and while as much as possible should be included, these are all tested at the examiners discretion, so he/she may decide not to do the stop if for example there is no sensibly safe opportunity for it, and city centre tests do more parking and turning and less dual carriageway and big roundabouts - it rather depends what the available routes and traffic are in the area around the test centres. There are also 'show/tell' questions about where oil goes in and using foglights and so on, and an on-line theory and hazard perception test that has to be passed before one can book an actual driving test.

It is more complex than it was, but perhaps not unreasonably so.

And for the motorbike test, they do indeed watch you from the roadside, and then step out in front of you. Not stopping with the machine under control is a fail.

The funniest to watch is the tractor test, which at 16 is for a single seater tractor, as round here you see all these kids driving in to what is in effect a city test  centre and then doing more or less the bike test,  in small side streets in some really boxy monster where they can see over the tops of the cars.

It seems to work, come harvest time there are plenty of teenagers earning cash towing empty trailers back at speed and not enough accidents to worry, The rest of us can drive a tractor and tow something like  20 tonnnes on a normal car test aged 17 plus.

Mike.

Very much so  - though the way the car test sylabus is structured, there are a set of standard 'manouvres' every learner must know - E-stop is one, so is reverse parking, parallel parking on the street, turning the car (the old '3 point turn') and other things like driving by satnav or roadsigns,and while as much as possible should be included, these are all tested at the examiners discretion, so he/she may decide not to do the stop if for example there is no sensibly safe opportunity for it, and city centre tests do more parking and turning and less dual carriageway and big roundabouts - it rather depends what the available routes and traffic are in the area around the test centres. There are also 'show/tell' questions about where oil goes in and using foglights and so on, and an on-line theory and hazard perception test that has to be passed before one can book an actual driving test.

It is more complex than it was, but perhaps not unreasonably so.

And for the motorbike test, they do indeed watch you from the roadside, and then step out in front of you. Not stopping with the machine under control is a fail.

The funniest to watch is the tractor test, which at 16 is for a single seater tractor, as round here you see all these kids driving in to what is in effect a city test  centre and then doing more or less the bike test,  in small side streets in some really boxy monster where they can see over the tops of the cars.

It seems to work, come harvest time there are plenty of teenagers earning cash towing empty trailers back at speed and not enough accidents to worry, The rest of us can drive a tractor and tow something like  20 tonnnes on a normal car test aged 17 plus.

Mike.

Mike:

To me the most important test is the three point turn- I have to do that nearly every day.

Most new cars now come with automatic parallel parking.

Peter

The Worcester driving test centre used be by my in-laws house, my father in-law used to make a couple of mugs of tea and we would walk up the road a bit to sit on a neighbours garden wall to watch people taking road roller driving tests.

There was a steel manhole cover surround that was slightly raised above the tarmac on a cross roads where they had to turn right, if they didn’t spot the raised metal work and hit it with the front roller as they turned, the road roller would slew to the side and they would have to reverse back to have another go. Lots of people failed their test on the manhole cover surround.