How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

Parents
  • Hello Roger:

    I am currently in the market to replace my 24 year old car. However I do not plan to buy an EV!

    Why? The current EV battery construction is not safe enough. There are far too many battery fires and salt water flooding now requires one to junk the car. 

    I suspect that auto insurance company in Florida will start to impose additional costs on EV's to cover the salt water flooding problem.

    Also the loss of gasoline based taxes, that are currently used to maintain the road systems, have resulted in some States already applying additional yearly registration charges for EV's

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida.

  • The 10X-100X value you quoted maybe invalid and just reflect the ratio of gasoline to EV vehicles.

    The numbers quoted seem to comparing the number of EV fires divided by the number of EVs, compared to the number of ICE fires divided by the number of ICE vehicles, so the approach seems valid. There may be other factors of course - e.g. EVs will tend to be newer than ICEs on average at the moment, so fires due to the ageing of insulation or rubber hoses might not yet be proportional (but that said, many ICE fires seem to be with pretty new vehicles).

    www.topgear.com reckons it's around 20x

       - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire, was a very old US manufactured Carburetor based vehicle that had a fuel hose leak. The fire was only a minor one and was easy to put out.

    If you watch recent smart phone produced videos from China (if can ever believe anything from China) they seem to have an excessive number of EV fires in parking lots and in traffic.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida   

  • The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire,

    Do you mean your particular family? If so that's rather a small sample size.

      - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    I had countless cars in both Canada and US reaching a maximum of four at one time when my two kids reached driving age.

    If you will remember from 1960's to 2000"s car engines only really lasted for about  80,000 miles. I used to drive that amount in about 18 months.

    I have driven from the US east coast to the west coast (about 3,000+ miles in 4 days) a number of times.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

  • Hello Andy:

    I just came across this new youtube video today about EV fires:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEsgNGj2mWE

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

  • I just came across this new youtube video today about EV fires:

    Ah, that explains it all then!  It's all down to a conspiracy by these "lefty" "green" "latte drinkers" (whose underlying motivation he can't quite put his finger on) making things up just for the fun of it.

    Or maybe not.  A lot of claims, but not a lot of actual data. One set of figures from the internet not matching another set of figures from the internet - proof of deliberate mis-information? Perhaps they're just (like most statistics in life) measuring slightly different things. Take the Luton multi-story car park fire for instance - started by a single diesel land rover - but 1,352  vehicles destroyed by the fire, all accidentally. Should that be recorded as 1 or 1,352 vehicle fires? If you're fighting the fire, or paying out the insurance claims you might have a different points of view from someone investigating root causes of fires. Ditto for the Liverpool car park fire. Or the Harrogate multi-storey, where a small fire in a car was attributed to "an electrical fault to the CD multi-changer in the boot." - was that caused by the car or just something in it?

    For sure, things are different between battery fires and petrol/diesel fires - but is either riskier overall than the other? He doesn't seem to provide any actual information on that at all.

    He does seem to miss the obvious elephant in the car park though - is storing thousands of kg of highly flammable (potentially explosive) materials (whether liquid fuels or chemical batteries) directly below an apartment block actually a good idea? Had the situation been reversed and someone proposed switching from EVs to cars that had maybe 50l of petrol in an unbunded plastic tank and group many of them together into a confined area directly below sleeping accommodation - do you think the fire service would give it an unreserved OK?

    Still I'm sure it gives a warm glow to all the fuddy duddies out there who can't cope with progress and just want a mate to tell them that what they've been doing all those years was OK after all. And it undoubtedly makes the presenter a few pence pocket money in click bait for the adverts.

       - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    I thought that you might be interested in seeing the backlash that is happening on social media (in this case in Australia) as a result of their government's push on EV's.

    I believe the same thing is happening here in the US, which may be accelerated when Trump hits the White House- at least as regards Chinese made EV's being imported into the country from Mexico.

    However if one looks at what is happening to Hollywood companies such as Disney and their active push in the culture wars, one begins to see that the US population is now endorsing more conservative social attitudes. 

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL USA:

    PS. Did you see that Honda is probably buying two other smaller Japanese car makers? 

  • There are a lot of people who are scared.  The fossil fuel companies who will see their revenues gradually falling year by year.  And the legacy auto-makers who would be wiped out if the Chinese are allowerd to sell cars that are both cheaper and better than what they have to offer.

    America is rapidly retreating into isolationism when it comes to trade.

  • Hello Simon:

    Here is another EV fire item I saw tonight, and the impact of salt water on the battery unit 

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIc_XUPkVLs

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay

  • Hello Simon:

    People want stability in their lives and EV' s are causing massive losses and layoffs in legacy car companies - consider the current VW problems in Germany.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL.

Reply
  • Hello Simon:

    People want stability in their lives and EV' s are causing massive losses and layoffs in legacy car companies - consider the current VW problems in Germany.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL.

Children
  • I think we can all see that, but as the oil and gas runs out, or more accurately, becomes uneconomically pricey to just burn, as the easy to extract local stuff is used up,  there will be even bigger issues if we don't make some efforts to transition. The UK is now a net importer of both - when in the 1980s we used to make a mint from oil export and flare off the excess gas (would not do that now). The US of course has several decades of production left, so is in a very different place, well for now at least.

    Playing 'lets pretend that things do not change' , is not really an option, and actually it never really has been - or can I can sell you a bustling canal network from the 1700s or some steam railways from the 1800s ;-)

    Wanting stability is one thing, putting the engineering effort in to deliver it, is quite another.

    We do however have rather crummy electricity distribution system in parts, and that needs some serious thought as we don't really want the lights to go out either.
    Mike.

  • Hello Mike:

    Lets see how do  we get into space without using hydrocarbons? Even the Tesla that was sent into space a few years ago, had to use the stuff.

    How are you going to fly to your holidays in Spain (for example) from an enlarged (maybe soon with a third runway) Heathrow London airport, without using excessive amounts of hydrocarbons?

    It is time for everyone in the UK to eliminate frivoius personal spending, that consumes directly or indirectly hydrocarbons?

    How about going back to everyone having to use government issued stamps to purchase clothing products like in WW11?

    How would the general UK population respond to such government actions to support climate change?

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida USA

  • How are you going to fly to your holidays in Spain (for example) from an enlarged (maybe soon with a third runway) Heathrow London airport, without using excessive amounts of hydrocarbons?

    Not all hydrocarbons are fossil fuels.

    Electric aeroplanes are already a thing, but unlikely to be useful for anything but short-haul flights in the near future.

  • Hello Mike:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3KEKtvNd9I

    I have just finished watching this new youtube video which deals with the "US Auto Loan Financial Crisis 2024", which also mentions (as  a side issue) a problem with EV's.

    It also supports an earlier comment I made about Wall Street 2025 projections being too positive as they didn't consider the excessive  personal debt n the US.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL USA