How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

  • Considering that climate change is a world wide effect and the UK is effectively a "Nit" on a larger host, then everything that is being done in the UK is meaningless.

    Peter Brooks

  • well, except for a tendency for things that start small in Britain to spread all over the planet within a few hundred years. We can be small, but a starter. Our weakness is that we then keep the original as well , so for example  we have all 3 flavours of electric railway, loads of prewar housing,  and a selection of really good museums....

    " what did the Brits ever do for us ?"  Worth a laugh.

    Whose language are you using for a start ?  It is not native American

    Mike

  • Hello Mike:

    You asked the question about what language do I use in America? 

    Well the language used by Native (Indians) Americans are numerous. I have visited a number of reservations and it differs by location.

    Here in Florida the American Indians run the "Hard Rock" Casinos on the reservations. The closest one is about 70 miles away.

    Here in the US, formally recognized Languages that are "required" on some internal Federal Health related documents are as follows:- English,Spanish,Chinese Mandarin, Chinese Cantonese, Tagalog, French, Vietnamese, German, Korean, Russian Hindi, Italian, Portuguese, French Creole, Polish and Japanese.

    Peter Brooks

  • Well its sort of my point - from your list, not one of the 'formally recognized' languages is 'native' and more generally knowledge and practice spreads around the globe historically from the developed world outwards, and the language you put at the top, English, is indeed one that originated from the "Nit" on the larger host as you put it ;-). (*)

    So I still think it is very much worth us doing stuff here in the UK. If it's any good the rest of the planet can copy - or,  if they don't like it they can always solve the problems their own way.

    Mike

    *quite a bit nit - sixth-largest national economy measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP) per person, tenth-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). 20th country in happiness ranking, pretty good life expectancy ....

  • Hello Mike:

    Don't forget that many of the words that you currently use in the UK were originally created in the US and you were contaminated by US produced Movies and TV programs.

    Just for the record the only British/English made products that I buy over here in the US is MARMITE! The Body needs adequate levels of B vitamins as one ages.

    The Big question is not what was developed in the UK centuries ago but what has been done (actually completed) lately (since the COVID pandemic or full activation of Brexit)

    I see that Virigin"s space plan's have moved from launching in the UK to Italy. 

    Peter 

  • well  if you want point scoring about recent events.  we had the Oxford Asra Zeneca  covid vaccine out pretty smartish, though that was more of a joint Europe wide effort,

    In terms of judging which climate change type stuff will actually work well, I think a timescale of decades is more appropriate.

    The existence of projects like dragonfire indicate that UK innovation, well in that case development, is still rumbling along - and despite some doom and gloom headlines there is plenty going on. 

    Mike

  • Hello Mike:

    I am not going into the glory details about problems with mRNA vaccines but they aren't as good as has been advertised.

    My family only uses standard types of vaccines including RSV, Flu and COVID.

    From what I read Dragonfire based computers are not selling well.

    Apples M3 based computers seem to be selling pretty well.

    I am currently looking at cutting the "cord" on my Internet connection and moving to T-Mobile 5G wireless internet system, now that the cable cost more than their wireless system.

    By the way my daughter uses the STARLINK system in her rural US area and reception is excellent.

    I have just spent the last couple of hours watching a video program about the Stock Market (both for US and offshore) projections for 2025. Most of the experts project a mostly positive outlook but failed to identify the high level of personal debt here in the US and major unemployment levels in China.

    Based on this program, I plan to eliminate my exposure to any US companies stocks that have major exposure to UK businesses like Boots.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

      

  • Hello Andy:

    I just came across this new youtube video today about EV fires:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEsgNGj2mWE

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

  • I just came across this new youtube video today about EV fires:

    Ah, that explains it all then!  It's all down to a conspiracy by these "lefty" "green" "latte drinkers" (whose underlying motivation he can't quite put his finger on) making things up just for the fun of it.

    Or maybe not.  A lot of claims, but not a lot of actual data. One set of figures from the internet not matching another set of figures from the internet - proof of deliberate mis-information? Perhaps they're just (like most statistics in life) measuring slightly different things. Take the Luton multi-story car park fire for instance - started by a single diesel land rover - but 1,352  vehicles destroyed by the fire, all accidentally. Should that be recorded as 1 or 1,352 vehicle fires? If you're fighting the fire, or paying out the insurance claims you might have a different points of view from someone investigating root causes of fires. Ditto for the Liverpool car park fire. Or the Harrogate multi-storey, where a small fire in a car was attributed to "an electrical fault to the CD multi-changer in the boot." - was that caused by the car or just something in it?

    For sure, things are different between battery fires and petrol/diesel fires - but is either riskier overall than the other? He doesn't seem to provide any actual information on that at all.

    He does seem to miss the obvious elephant in the car park though - is storing thousands of kg of highly flammable (potentially explosive) materials (whether liquid fuels or chemical batteries) directly below an apartment block actually a good idea? Had the situation been reversed and someone proposed switching from EVs to cars that had maybe 50l of petrol in an unbunded plastic tank and group many of them together into a confined area directly below sleeping accommodation - do you think the fire service would give it an unreserved OK?

    Still I'm sure it gives a warm glow to all the fuddy duddies out there who can't cope with progress and just want a mate to tell them that what they've been doing all those years was OK after all. And it undoubtedly makes the presenter a few pence pocket money in click bait for the adverts.

       - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    I thought that you might be interested in seeing the backlash that is happening on social media (in this case in Australia) as a result of their government's push on EV's.

    I believe the same thing is happening here in the US, which may be accelerated when Trump hits the White House- at least as regards Chinese made EV's being imported into the country from Mexico.

    However if one looks at what is happening to Hollywood companies such as Disney and their active push in the culture wars, one begins to see that the US population is now endorsing more conservative social attitudes. 

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL USA:

    PS. Did you see that Honda is probably buying two other smaller Japanese car makers?