How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

  • Peter,

    Although it would make me unpopular, I feel that there should definitely be some controls on older drivers. We already have controls on new drivers (typically younger) and there is a proposal to tighten this further. But the accident rate also goes up as you get older.

    It should be noted that there are perfectly competent older drivers - Fangio was competitively driving well into his later years. So age  alone shouldn't ever disqualify you from driving.

    Technically, if you are found to not have correct eyesight and you are involved in an accident, then you are likely to get prosecuted, but we really should be taking preventative measures (FMEA anyone).

    But yes, currently in the UK, if you pass your test driving an automatic, you are limited to driving automatics only. Someone with a manual license can drive either. There are also other categories that you have to apply for and potentially pass a test for, such as bikes, buses, trucks. You are no longer granted the ability to drive anything just by passing a car test.

  • Hello Mike"

    It is now nearly impossible to buy a manual transmission car in the US.

    I had to give my son special lessons to teach teach him, when he got an old (imported) British mini.

    Also the other problem was the steering wheel was on the UK side 

    Is the UK going to have special driving licences for EV's?

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida 

  • There are compulsory health checks for some drivers in the UK as they age.
    for a heavy vehicle - over 7.5tonnes, After the driver's 45th birthday, an HGV medical is required every five years until the age of 65, when a medical examination will be required every year.
    For cars as that is only 3,5 tonnes + 3,5 tonne trailer max,  it is easier there is no requirement to take a medical test but beyond age 70, applicants must formally declare that they are fit and healthy to drive and their eyesight meets the minimum requirements for driving. In practice this should involve a chat with the doctor and the optician  A record of a medical examination is required if those over 70 want to drive a medium-sized goods vehicle or minibus.

    I think the main reason for not making it more formal, is the fact that  we seem to struggle with workload for doctors as it is, and folk are told, when put on new medication or being discharged from hospital , if they should not drive. (as happened to my mum after a stroke for example - driving licence never removed, just suspended until she recovered, which in practice she never did, so she never drove again.)
    Mike

  • no - a test taken in an EV counts as automatic. It depends what vehicle you rock up in to the test centre. Having recently tought both of mine to drive, one age 17, and the other age 19 (covid messed up many things, and test appointments was one) they just went in our normal manual car.

    Attitudes vary by continent - I have driven an automatic car, on holiday, in south america..... not here. Our neighbour has one, but she has a medical problem with her legs.
    Mike.

  • Hello Mike:

    When I took the UK car divers test when I was in my teens, they had a requirement to have an emergency stop test.

    The examiner banged on the dash board for one to stop. In my case the examiner didn't realize that we were on "back ice" at the time.

    When I later took my UK motorcycle test the examiner watched me go around from the pavement.

    For the emergency stop he walked out into the road- However he took care to test me when he was a very long distance away from me.

    Do they still do the stop test?

    Peter 

    Palm Bay FL 

      

  • Hello Mike:

    There is a population group that is not being provided with adequate personal transport options- seniors!

    If a self driving (upon demand) EV based taxi type service was available it would  be supported here in the US if priced correctly.

    Most seniors are already offered a limited number of free trips to go to medical appointments. 

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL 

  • Very much so  - though the way the car test sylabus is structured, there are a set of standard 'manouvres' every learner must know - E-stop is one, so is reverse parking, parallel parking on the street, turning the car (the old '3 point turn') and other things like driving by satnav or roadsigns,and while as much as possible should be included, these are all tested at the examiners discretion, so he/she may decide not to do the stop if for example there is no sensibly safe opportunity for it, and city centre tests do more parking and turning and less dual carriageway and big roundabouts - it rather depends what the available routes and traffic are in the area around the test centres. There are also 'show/tell' questions about where oil goes in and using foglights and so on, and an on-line theory and hazard perception test that has to be passed before one can book an actual driving test.

    It is more complex than it was, but perhaps not unreasonably so.

    And for the motorbike test, they do indeed watch you from the roadside, and then step out in front of you. Not stopping with the machine under control is a fail.

    The funniest to watch is the tractor test, which at 16 is for a single seater tractor, as round here you see all these kids driving in to what is in effect a city test  centre and then doing more or less the bike test,  in small side streets in some really boxy monster where they can see over the tops of the cars.

    It seems to work, come harvest time there are plenty of teenagers earning cash towing empty trailers back at speed and not enough accidents to worry, The rest of us can drive a tractor and tow something like  20 tonnnes on a normal car test aged 17 plus.

    Mike.

  • Mike:

    To me the most important test is the three point turn- I have to do that nearly every day.

    Most new cars now come with automatic parallel parking.

    Peter

  • The Worcester driving test centre used be by my in-laws house, my father in-law used to make a couple of mugs of tea and we would walk up the road a bit to sit on a neighbours garden wall to watch people taking road roller driving tests.

    There was a steel manhole cover surround that was slightly raised above the tarmac on a cross roads where they had to turn right, if they didn’t spot the raised metal work and hit it with the front roller as they turned, the road roller would slew to the side and they would have to reverse back to have another go. Lots of people failed their test on the manhole cover surround.

  • I agree with you, that unless the electric grid is fully power by green energy then it is a meaningless effort.

    I feel you might be throwing the baby out with the bath water there. Even with a partially green grid (such as we have at the moment) the savings in CO2 emissions are still significant. For example, the UK (averaged over the last 12 months) emitted 119g per kWh generated - and EV typically does around 3 miles or 4.5km per kWh - so driving emissions for an EV would be around  26g/km - compared with an ICE where you'd do well to get much below 120g/km.

    Or to look at it the other way around, to match a 120g/km car, an EV could be fed from a grid that produced anything up to 540g/kWh - which you'd get from just about any mix except perhaps 100% coal fired.

    And that's before you factor in the benefits for local air quality, especially in urban areas.

      - Andy.