How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

  • There are a lot of people who are scared.  The fossil fuel companies who will see their revenues gradually falling year by year.  And the legacy auto-makers who would be wiped out if the Chinese are allowerd to sell cars that are both cheaper and better than what they have to offer.

    America is rapidly retreating into isolationism when it comes to trade.

  • Hello Simon:

    Here is another EV fire item I saw tonight, and the impact of salt water on the battery unit 

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIc_XUPkVLs

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay

  • Hello Simon:

    People want stability in their lives and EV' s are causing massive losses and layoffs in legacy car companies - consider the current VW problems in Germany.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL.

  • I think we can all see that, but as the oil and gas runs out, or more accurately, becomes uneconomically pricey to just burn, as the easy to extract local stuff is used up,  there will be even bigger issues if we don't make some efforts to transition. The UK is now a net importer of both - when in the 1980s we used to make a mint from oil export and flare off the excess gas (would not do that now). The US of course has several decades of production left, so is in a very different place, well for now at least.

    Playing 'lets pretend that things do not change' , is not really an option, and actually it never really has been - or can I can sell you a bustling canal network from the 1700s or some steam railways from the 1800s ;-)

    Wanting stability is one thing, putting the engineering effort in to deliver it, is quite another.

    We do however have rather crummy electricity distribution system in parts, and that needs some serious thought as we don't really want the lights to go out either.
    Mike.

  • Hello Mike:

    Lets see how do  we get into space without using hydrocarbons? Even the Tesla that was sent into space a few years ago, had to use the stuff.

    How are you going to fly to your holidays in Spain (for example) from an enlarged (maybe soon with a third runway) Heathrow London airport, without using excessive amounts of hydrocarbons?

    It is time for everyone in the UK to eliminate frivoius personal spending, that consumes directly or indirectly hydrocarbons?

    How about going back to everyone having to use government issued stamps to purchase clothing products like in WW11?

    How would the general UK population respond to such government actions to support climate change?

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida USA

  • How are you going to fly to your holidays in Spain (for example) from an enlarged (maybe soon with a third runway) Heathrow London airport, without using excessive amounts of hydrocarbons?

    Not all hydrocarbons are fossil fuels.

    Electric aeroplanes are already a thing, but unlikely to be useful for anything but short-haul flights in the near future.

  • Hello Mike:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3KEKtvNd9I

    I have just finished watching this new youtube video which deals with the "US Auto Loan Financial Crisis 2024", which also mentions (as  a side issue) a problem with EV's.

    It also supports an earlier comment I made about Wall Street 2025 projections being too positive as they didn't consider the excessive  personal debt n the US.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL USA