Well I read it as implying  part P should never have have introduced in the way it was, and it failed to achieve its objective and recovering from it has taken a reasonably significant relaxation of the rules in 2013-14 and that has needed ages to take effect.

We have more paperwork and perhaps more traceability but less folk out there just fixing stuff before it goes wrong..  We know that it removed from the pool of cheaper labour some experienced folk who maybe were approaching retirement, or operated in a small way that made registration uneconomic. That probably in turn meant that at the small jobs /pub electrician end of the market this left more of the less conscientious. Also perhaps the increase in the cost of small jobs that may have been borderline DIY  being put off until never. If that is the reason, it is not without parallel - there was a slight but statistically significant reduction in accidents in New Zealand relative to Australia after they re-permitted certain types of DIY wiring in the 1990s.

There is a cost to regulation that requires a paper trail, if only the labout time lost to complying with it, maybe there is a higher cost too.

The important thing is not to let anyone use this to justify 'ah look we really need AFDDs' because it does not say that at all.

Mike

That graph showing fires jumping from around 3000 to 5000 per year within a year or two strongly hints at changes in reporting methodology rather than any actual increase or decrease in the safety of the electrical installations. Changes in training, part P etc are likely to take decades to work through into fire statistics, since we don't replace all wiring in all dwellings every year or two.

I agree and think that the assumptions being drawn from this graph are rather dubious, and personally I would draw the opposite conclusion from the same chart, i.e. electrical distribution fires have steadily declined by ~20% in the last 10-12 years since comparable records began.

The change in methodology midway clearly coincides with a substantial change in both magnitude and trend. Without any form of overlap between the two datasets they are not really comparable (the IET's write up seems to consider this also) and there is no attempt to account for this in the analysis... It smacks of analysis to support a point, rather than the other way around... Who is to say the trend is going to be linear over 30 years after all?

It also appears not to be normalised for number of dwellings, which will inevitably skew the results a little.

I made the AFDD point directly below the article Mike. It was my 1st suspicion. I can see the manufacturing lobbyists banging on the IET's door screaming about the lack of take-up of AFDDs and that something should be done about it. Drop a 'study' into the public domain about increased fires and let the scaremongers do the rest. Also agree about Part P, a most noticeable trend on the graph. I wonder if it been proofread properly before release.

I agree! I have refrained from asking a question, about part P... but, briefly - I think it was a big mistake! WHY? Well, for one it pushed many so called 'sparks' beneath the radar and they had their mates, sign off their works, (meaning that this 'mate' didn't checkout what he was signing off),  also... many couldn't be bothered making sure they were doing the works, correctly! As far as I am concerned, (not forgetting the RYB fiasco), part P was only about a money making exercise, for the colleges! 

SORRY, I don't mean to sound offensive... just my take on what's going on! Thanks...

I agree! I have refrained from asking a question, about part P... but, briefly - I think it was a big mistake! WHY? Well, for one it pushed many so called 'sparks' beneath the radar and they had their mates, sign off their works, (meaning that this 'mate' didn't checkout what he was signing off),  also... many couldn't be bothered making sure they were doing the works, correctly! As far as I am concerned, (not forgetting the RYB fiasco), part P was only about a money making exercise, for the colleges! 

SORRY, I don't mean to sound offensive... just my take on what's going on! Thanks...