Will HS2 Fail or Succeed?

I didn't say run trains 'in' central reservations, I said run trains 'above' central reservations and 'over' motorways on raised modern rail track systems for maglev, hyperloop, etc. Trains running between motorways works extremely well in the USA - just go to Washington, etc. I'm also saying run semi-autonomous train pod convoys, like the proposed autonomous road haulage convoys, and 'build' trains in realtime based on demand to each destination - AI using ticketing data could do this easily. Train pods can be stored, added and removed, anywhere along the route in 'raised shunting yards'. The aim of HS2 is not to have too many stops to cut down journey time, so only needs to follow motorways between cities and then into and out of the few cities en route.


Think exponentially what is required 10 years, 20, 30 years ahead in a changed more sustainable world, not replicate the inefficient rail system with just slightly faster and more expensive to what we have today.


If today's train commuter is not clever enough to get in the right pod that has big destination signage all over it, and probably by then has nano-GPS route guidance to the pre-booked pod seat on a personal IoT/AI smart device, they really shouldn't be let out to travel on their own.


If we had taken your proposed KISS way forward last century, we would not be using recyclable rockets, having commercial space journeys to the Space station let alone have a space station, gone to the moon, gone supersonic, have electric and hydrogen vehicles, or even be communicating as we are today. 


More Arthur C Clark attitude and vision required I suggest.

Fully support that - seems to work well in France, for Eurotunnel, et al and would be a far better solution than the 20th century thinking and solution that HS2 is.

not sure about Arthur C Clark, what we will get will be more like Colin Kapp I suspect.

( for those who are not sure)
The Railways Up on Cannis is is a particularly apt episode, where the trains end up with rollers as there are too many existing but  incompatible track width standards that all have to be met.

Hi Andy, mea culpa if my comment was taken as a pointed comment at yourself, not intended. 


The point you illustrate in the Swedish ticketing scenario is exactly what I believe HS2 is missing in its thinking today, with little exponential thinking about mass transport tomorrow. We have systems like following coloured lines in hospitals to different wards, pulsing lights and using smart phones within buildings from reception to the room you are visiting in smart buildings linked to your GPS location position and destination (indoor way finding), etc. The main problem is that the HS2 solution to a 20th Century train solution was immediately decided to be another 20th Century train solution based on yesterday's technology and approaches.


The UK seems pathologically adverse to scanning globally for best practice and using exemplars from foreign countries on how to do things better, smarter, more cost effectively and with spiral evolution to future proof in its DNA concept and design. A British Empire and historic hubris that is holding us back - the entrepreneurial and innovation spirit has been dimmed for many reasons. 


As we move out of Covid-19 we have a real opportunity to frog leap conventional thinking and use a paradigm shift in thinking and future systems approach to provide a more sustainable, resilient and innovative clean tech era that moves us into 21st Century mass mobility solutions.

Sounds about right, Heath Robinson compromises.

My point is that people love coming up with clever over-complicated solutions, when there is a simple well-known solution.  The most cost-effective solution to a problem is the one to go for.


The clever solution is more risky, will probably end up costing more.  Building railway lines above motorways will involve a massive disruption to the motorway network while it is being done. It will require huge engineering works to build something strong enough to hold two trains passing.  Bridges over the motorway would have to be knocked down and rebuilt higher.  Motorway bridges over other things, such as rivers, will have to be knocked down and built stronger.

Elevated railways are already being done/planned in other countries.
https://www.railjournal.com/in_depth/elevated-ambitions 
https://www.citymetric.com/transport/elevated-rail-more-effective-trenching-so-why-it-so-hard-melbourne-1920 
https://inhabitat.com/elevated-caterpillar-trains-fly-over-traffic-without-blocking-out-the-cityscape/


Self-supporting, modular, elevated rail systems are far more efficient due to multiple usage of land, create minimal reduction in urban, rural and agricultural land use, less risk from railway crossings, less disruptive in construction, etc.


Minimal disruption, maximum construction speed, scale, consistent quality and repeatability, least environmental destruction, and standardised construction using modular construction techniques.
https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/special-reports/only-procurement-is-holding-back-modular-construction-in-rail-21-09-2017/ 

The Department for Transport says the project will cut Birmingham to London journey times from one hour 21 minutes to 52 minutes (a saving of 30 mins in ideal situations) with Phase 1 by 2031. Will this really happen on time and budget and is this a significant change to business and travel between London and the Midlands? Covid-19 has shown there will be a big shift to on-line meetings, virtual team working, cyber-collaboration, 3D Virtual Reality/AI immersed meetings, virtual conferences and seminars where your avatar will be able to walk around a virtual meeting/conference centre, meet people, interact in cyber-booths, etc, requiring far less face-to-face meetings, and thus far less long distance travel? HS2 Phase 2 to Leeds and Manchester by 2040 when the world will have changed two or three cycles by then given the pace of change of technology. 20 years ago in 2000 we didn't have smart phones, on-line streaming, 3D VR helmets, reusable rockets, Uber, Lyft, Air BNB, 4G, personal medical and fitness devices, wearable technology, tele-medicine, etc, on-line collaboration, social media, personal GPS services, multiple satellite services. Imagine what we will have by 2030 and then 2040 and you will only be able to come uo with say 10% of what will be designed and used day-to-day! The world will have rapidly moved on and past conventional rail travel as we know it today, and well before a HS2-lite version eventually gets to Birmingham by 2035 (earliest if ever) at £150bn+.

The new railway line running between London and the West Midlands would carry 400m-long (1,300ft) trains with as many as 1,100 seats per train - whether fully booked or empty - waste of resources using standard sized trains for all demand scenarios: 0 passengers to overcrowded.


Lets shunt ourselves into the third decade of the 21st Century and be forward looking, innovative and world leading in sustainable railway/mass mobility, and develop technology we can globally export to other countries also grappling with future mass transit rail systems.


U-turn spinning top on Covid-19 policies, U-turn on BREXIT border checks and other issues, U-turn on Huawei, U-turn on the golden era of trade with China - I wouldn't be surprised given the pressure on national coffers during Covid-19 to see a Boris U-turn on HS2 as it is today by the summer.


Repayment of £100bn+ spent to keep the country afloat with wages/salaries/business loans/PPE, or >£106bn - £200bn over 10-30 years for a short stretch (relative) of conventional, yesterday technology, railway to save 30 mins (at best with no problems on the journey) travelling between London and Birmingham when the whole way we will be living and working is changing around us as we speak. I support Option A, the one that is better taxpayer value for money to future proof us and make us more resilient as a nation, over a legacy project first proposed in 2009 and that wouldn't deliver until 2040 at the earliest, if at all.

HS2 will ultimately succeed, but is being delivered too slowly and by the time it is delivered will be out of date, yes it will overrun in terms of budget and delivery!

Why do I say this, currently in China where motorways and trains run on elevated sections, including stations, and this seems to work very well, and the speed of these trains is now 350 kph, the service is very good. If the train is full, you cant buy a ticket either!

Lots of focus on saving 30 minutes, but this is the first section, London to Scotland should be significant.

I still think it has to be explained what the price of a ticket from Manchester to London will be , if people choose more zoom meetings for business and at 20p a minute any boss cutting down on the overheads will think a zoom call vs £300 for a day return will be better ???