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Times they is Worryin

Millions warned of power cuts this winter | News | The Times

Z.

  • As far as gas is concerned we have gone from the stuff coming out from the north sea faster than we could possibly burn it, a situation last seen in the early 2000s, to a situation where we need to import to cover the shortfall for several months of the year.  Of course building storage and so forth made no sense when we were exporting a surplus,  and the transition from exporter to importer needs us to perform a serious re-thinking about what is worth doing - like how much storage we need and what it is worth.. And longer term to make a transition to  consumption of energy made by something else.

    I must admit I'm always surprise at the figures involved  at Rough,- 3000 PSI (reduced from 3500 PSI to reduce stresses) and 3 billion cubic metres  re-inflates to a lot of gas at 20 millibar over atmospheric,

    There are no other storage facilities that come near it in terms of capacity in the UK. Deborah could have done but has not actually been configured for storage after all.

    I suspect the cost of repair/refit at Rough is now becoming  smaller relative to  the cost of filling it.

    Mike.

    Report on Rough field

  • And its cloudy too.

    The unreliables are performing as expected. Ie completely useless.

  • Even in the calm and cloudy weather that prevailed for much of today, Renewables produced about 20% of our electricity, saving a useful amount of costly gas.

    By expanding wind and solar generation it could meet the majority of our needs under favourable conditions, and perhaps 40% instead of the present 20% of our demand on days like today.

  • I wish that was the case Broadgage, expanding wind and solar will be a disaster for the country. Unreliable energy is folly and will lead to lights out and a terrible economy for today and future generations.

    We must use our current sources of coal and gas while we move towards green SMNR.

    The holy grail of safe cheap energy is yet to be discovered.

  • Can I point out that every single year we get a warning that there are going to be blackouts next winter.

  • And every year we're told the weather is getting worse. 

  •  I'm thinking of taking bets on how long it takes before the Daily Wail gets to use its typical 'Britain set to experience polar freeze this winter' headline this year. It's a foregone conclusion that they will, but the timing is always negotiable. Joy

  • IME it is the daily express that favours alarmist reports about extreme weather. "killer storms on the way" "worst winter in 100 years expected" and the like.

    The daily mail by contrast seems to prefer reports that either anti migrant, or anti EU, both sometimes. "new migrant tide on the way" or "EU mandarins threaten the British pint"  or "French ban fresh milk"

  • Yes we do.

    Hopefully most members of these forums can decide if the warnings are simply to sell newspapers, or if the ACTUAL RISKS are significant.

    My view is that the risk IS significantly increased this winter.

    It is an observed fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine. It is an observed fact that about half of our electricity is from burning gas.

    It is an observed fact that UK natural gas storage is very limited indeed. 

    It is therefore a reasonable deduction from the above facts, that we face an increased risk of power cuts this winter. A lot depends on the future actions of putin, which are unknown.

    In previous years,  news media warned of power cuts, and there was in my view SOME risk but less than is the case this year. In previous years the risk was that demand might exceed available generating capacity. Not very likely but it could have happened if an unusual number of power stations had broken, or if extreme weather had increased demand.

  • Don't panic Lisa, 

    We're still gradually warming. (almost up to the medieval warm period temperatures)

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/01/uah-global-temperature-update-for-may-2022-0-17-deg-c/

    If it does turn cold this winter and the lights go out we can hug our pets as Bojo suggests.