I think its a difficult thing to predict. How could have predicted where we are now , say 50 years ago?

The one thing I would say, is that its likely to be driven by the growth markets. That isn't western Europe and the US those are mature markets. We are already seeing some very capable cars coming out of China (and can be higher quality then some from established makes).

Fusion power will definitely be an enabler if anyone can make it work since much of the issue is energy.

What you can rely on is that the current technologies will keep on progressing, electric range will improve, charging times will drop, the ability of a car to self-drive will keep on improving.

Its interesting that you pick up on imports of EVs from China, because I suspect that 100% of European car makes source Chinese made parts and its only assembly that occurs in Europe (I know for sure that this it the case for some makes). So there isn't much difference in shipping a car if you are already shipping most the parts.

Now who remembers the electric milk float which was pretty common once upon a time?

Hello Roger:

The ones I remember in London did not have a cab structure but were guided by the milkman walking ahead of the electric powered section.

Milk Glass bottles were locally recycled (washed) and reused. 

Here where I live, glass containers are not recycled.

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay FL

The UK used to be the world leader in EVs back then.  Because we had electric milk floats, and nobody else had any EVs to speak of.

Somebody should swap the lead acid battery from a milk float with a lithium one.  The up-rate the motor.  A 90 MPH milk float would be fun.  Probably not a 3-wheel one, though.  That would be scary.

The UK used to be the world leader in EVs back then.  Because we had electric milk floats, and nobody else had any EVs to speak of.

Somebody should swap the lead acid battery from a milk float with a lithium one.  The up-rate the motor.  A 90 MPH milk float would be fun.  Probably not a 3-wheel one, though.  That would be scary.

The ones round our way used NiFe cells, not lead acid, as they were pretty much indestructible in terms of mis-charging and running flat They did add the best end of a ton to the weight though. They even had their own category on the drivers licence - a milk float only licence, like a tractor licence still is, was granted at 16 I think - the rules dated from a school leaving age of 15 or before - which feels not all that long ago (I was, just, already at school when the change from 15 to 16 came in, my parents where at school when it changed from 14 to 15.).
The charging rig they had at our local dairy was changed to a modern  Thyristor based thing in the 1970s, and ran much cooler than the resistor banks it replaced, but the radio interference it generated was problematic from more than half a mile away, it took ages to get it acknowledged and then fixed.

Mike.

Hello Simon:

Regarding your comment "The UK used to be a world leader in EV's back then".

I think the US was the EV leader if you count the number of Golf Carts.

I purchased and used Golf carts inside my company, to transport people and materials from one major building to another.

As the company buildings existed either side of a public road I had to have some of them titled and they had to carry state licence plates.

The new US Golf carts do use Lithium batteries.

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida 

Hello Mike:

Strange that you mentioned drivers licences- I just came back from renewing my Florida drivers licence. If one is over 80 years old one has to take a new vision test. Mine is also endorsed for driving a motor cycle.

Driver licences used to be issued specifically to the type of car you were driving (automatic or manual).

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida    

Hello Mike

My wife lived on farm and was driving a tractor well before the age of 16.

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay FL 

Peter,

Although it would make me unpopular, I feel that there should definitely be some controls on older drivers. We already have controls on new drivers (typically younger) and there is a proposal to tighten this further. But the accident rate also goes up as you get older.

It should be noted that there are perfectly competent older drivers - Fangio was competitively driving well into his later years. So age  alone shouldn't ever disqualify you from driving.

Technically, if you are found to not have correct eyesight and you are involved in an accident, then you are likely to get prosecuted, but we really should be taking preventative measures (FMEA anyone).

But yes, currently in the UK, if you pass your test driving an automatic, you are limited to driving automatics only. Someone with a manual license can drive either. There are also other categories that you have to apply for and potentially pass a test for, such as bikes, buses, trucks. You are no longer granted the ability to drive anything just by passing a car test.

Hello Mike"

It is now nearly impossible to buy a manual transmission car in the US.

I had to give my son special lessons to teach teach him, when he got an old (imported) British mini.

Also the other problem was the steering wheel was on the UK side 

Is the UK going to have special driving licences for EV's?

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay Florida 

There are compulsory health checks for some drivers in the UK as they age.
for a heavy vehicle - over 7.5tonnes, After the driver's 45th birthday, an HGV medical is required every five years until the age of 65, when a medical examination will be required every year.
For cars as that is only 3,5 tonnes + 3,5 tonne trailer max,  it is easier there is no requirement to take a medical test but beyond age 70, applicants must formally declare that they are fit and healthy to drive and their eyesight meets the minimum requirements for driving. In practice this should involve a chat with the doctor and the optician  A record of a medical examination is required if those over 70 want to drive a medium-sized goods vehicle or minibus.

I think the main reason for not making it more formal, is the fact that  we seem to struggle with workload for doctors as it is, and folk are told, when put on new medication or being discharged from hospital , if they should not drive. (as happened to my mum after a stroke for example - driving licence never removed, just suspended until she recovered, which in practice she never did, so she never drove again.)
Mike

no - a test taken in an EV counts as automatic. It depends what vehicle you rock up in to the test centre. Having recently tought both of mine to drive, one age 17, and the other age 19 (covid messed up many things, and test appointments was one) they just went in our normal manual car.

Attitudes vary by continent - I have driven an automatic car, on holiday, in south america..... not here. Our neighbour has one, but she has a medical problem with her legs.
Mike.

Hello Mike:

When I took the UK car divers test when I was in my teens, they had a requirement to have an emergency stop test.

The examiner banged on the dash board for one to stop. In my case the examiner didn't realize that we were on "back ice" at the time.

When I later took my UK motorcycle test the examiner watched me go around from the pavement.

For the emergency stop he walked out into the road- However he took care to test me when he was a very long distance away from me.

Do they still do the stop test?

Peter 

Palm Bay FL 

Hello Mike:

There is a population group that is not being provided with adequate personal transport options- seniors!

If a self driving (upon demand) EV based taxi type service was available it would  be supported here in the US if priced correctly.

Most seniors are already offered a limited number of free trips to go to medical appointments. 

Peter Brooks

Palm Bay FL