How will the electric vehicle market really develop?

Our governments are trying hard and spending large amounts of taxpayers money to promote electric vehicles but the uptake is nowhere near what is wanted. They are now looking at penalties to reduce the sale of ICE vehicles and force the purchase of EVs.

Will this really work? The current result will be more imports of EVs from China which will increase the vehicles pollution footprint both by the coal  used to supply the energy for manufacture and shipping half way round the world.

What is the real goal? Artificially increasing the rate of EV take up greatly increases the short term emissions.  There probably is a reasonable payback on a high/very high milage vehicle. For others there may not be a payback. I chose to buy a new small petrol car. In the first year it did 6000 miles, enough to justify it’s existence, but if I had gone for an EV it probably wouldn’t pay back in my remaining driving years.

Is the goal of replacing IC engines with electric motor realistic in view of the resources required? How far does it go, cars, commercial vehicles, agricultural machines, construction machinery, aircraft, ships? There are most definitely excellent niches for EVs, especially now the range (both choice and distance) and quality are improving and there has been a significant build up in charging infrastructure. I see quite a few electric commercial vehicles during my 15 minute walk home, generally on local area deliveries although the Swiss Post seems to be trialing a longer range articulated version. I am also happy when they use the EV for the early morning deliveries at the local supermarkets.

What does the panel think? Will there be a wide rollout or will EVs remain a niche product?

  • Gas is top fuel  in the UK as well, but these days only just true when averaged over the year -  in calm winter weather like now, the gas gets hammered, while in the summer we barely need it.

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ shows the spot data as well as the long term graphs.

    In contrast, France of course is mostly nuclear...

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/

    Germany has no nuclear to speak of but more solar in the summer.

    https://www.agora-energiewende.org/data-tools/agorameter/chart/today/power_generation/01.12.2023/30.11.2024/monthly

    It all rather depends where you are. It may not yet be all green but if all it does is make the remaining gas last a decade or two longer and increase the fraction of the year when we are not a net importer, then in terms of security, economy, and future generally, that has all got to be good.

    Mike.

  • This is quite an interesting report from Polestar on footprint and breakeven for similar ICE and Electric cars.

    https://www.polestar.com/dato-assets/11286/1600176185-20200915polestarlcafinala.pdf

    It is well written and the assumptions and sources are stated. The two key diagrams are these:

     

     

    The first shows the large influence of the electricity source for EVs  and the second expected breakeven mileage for various sources. Taking the EU28 mix gives a breakeven of around 78 000 km which I probably won’t reach. If I take into account that  Swiss electricity is predominately nuclear and hydro I could probably reduce that number a bit.

    The Polestar 2/V40 are bigger and more expensive than I would choose, but quality small EVs are not so common, the manufacturers have concentrated on the high end.

    Does anyone know of any more well documents life cycle comparisons?

  • Hello Roger:

    I am not doubting the quality of the Polerstar data but I noticed that it was developed on the 2020 models.

    A lot of things have happened in the world since 2020.

    I notice a recent trend on social media (like youtube) involving the authors claims that "the sky is falling",  by them using old 2023 (or older) newspaper articles. 

    One thing that I recently saw on DW news was the effect of lack of snow in the Swiss Alps - I now questioning the amount of water supporting the hydroelectric systems.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida 

  • The 10X-100X value you quoted maybe invalid and just reflect the ratio of gasoline to EV vehicles.

    The numbers quoted seem to comparing the number of EV fires divided by the number of EVs, compared to the number of ICE fires divided by the number of ICE vehicles, so the approach seems valid. There may be other factors of course - e.g. EVs will tend to be newer than ICEs on average at the moment, so fires due to the ageing of insulation or rubber hoses might not yet be proportional (but that said, many ICE fires seem to be with pretty new vehicles).

    www.topgear.com reckons it's around 20x

       - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire, was a very old US manufactured Carburetor based vehicle that had a fuel hose leak. The fire was only a minor one and was easy to put out.

    If you watch recent smart phone produced videos from China (if can ever believe anything from China) they seem to have an excessive number of EV fires in parking lots and in traffic.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay Florida   

  • The only family owned ICE vehicle that ever caught fire,

    Do you mean your particular family? If so that's rather a small sample size.

      - Andy.

  • Hello Andy:

    I had countless cars in both Canada and US reaching a maximum of four at one time when my two kids reached driving age.

    If you will remember from 1960's to 2000"s car engines only really lasted for about  80,000 miles. I used to drive that amount in about 18 months.

    I have driven from the US east coast to the west coast (about 3,000+ miles in 4 days) a number of times.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL

  • I think its a difficult thing to predict. How could have predicted where we are now , say 50 years ago?

    The one thing I would say, is that its likely to be driven by the growth markets. That isn't western Europe and the US those are mature markets. We are already seeing some very capable cars coming out of China (and can be higher quality then some from established makes).

    Fusion power will definitely be an enabler if anyone can make it work since much of the issue is energy.

    What you can rely on is that the current technologies will keep on progressing, electric range will improve, charging times will drop, the ability of a car to self-drive will keep on improving.

    Its interesting that you pick up on imports of EVs from China, because I suspect that 100% of European car makes source Chinese made parts and its only assembly that occurs in Europe (I know for sure that this it the case for some makes). So there isn't much difference in shipping a car if you are already shipping most the parts.

    Now who remembers the electric milk float which was pretty common once upon a time?

  • Hello Roger:

    The ones I remember in London did not have a cab structure but were guided by the milkman walking ahead of the electric powered section.

    Milk Glass bottles were locally recycled (washed) and reused. 

    Here where I live, glass containers are not recycled.

    Peter Brooks

    Palm Bay FL