How will electric cars 'die'?

Arran Cameron: 
 

Has much research been carried out into what happens to electric cars as they age and how they eventually ‘die’?

There are several potential possibilities including:……

Good question.

To address part of it, there is significant research going into recycling batteries. The batteries are physically a big part of the vehicle. There is a lot of electronics, but physically they are not large; however, electronics nowadays is recycled,  because of the rarity of some physical components ("rare earths" and so on).

The current deal on batteries is physical reduction and extraction of the valuable parts, essentially as raw substance. However, I understand a lot of work is going into component architectures that enable disassembly. Sort of integrated modular batteries, if you like. If we get to the point at which service centres can swap out underperforming cells, which can then be inexpensively refurbished, then we would be in essentially the situation we are in now with ICE vehicles, except that the motors will last longer and be much cheaper to rebuild. 

How that will work out in socioeconomic practice, though, is hard to see. It is not out of the question that battery supply and refurbishment becomes a substantial, possibly even the main, part of the automotive industry. Or that, when you buy an EV, you contract separately for the vehicle hull and for its battery. As we do now for the ICE vehicle hull and its energy supply.

I find it very telling that the Japanese motorbike makers are pushing a standard replaceable battery - this has the consequence that an electric bike with a dead battery is not such a write-off as a car with a funny shaped bespoke one that may be no longer made.

If longer term an electric ‘jerry can’ became a standard part so that a car may be re-batteried then that would indeed be  a great improvement.

Then without clutches, gear box, cooling hoses, etc, the electric car really ought to be good for half a million miles.

Mike.

“Bangernomics” relies on older cars being perceived as risky purchases - few people want to take that risk hence prices are lower.  The bonus for people willing to take that risk is cheaper motoring.

The most costly risk when buying an older electric car is the condition of the battery.  In this case, as Peter suggests, a separate contract covering the use of the battery is the way forward.  If the rest of the car (notwithstanding invertors etc) is seen as less risky then I suspect that older electric cars will actually retain their values better than ICE ones, and never reach the £2000 level suggested above.

From a tax perspective I think it's likely that some type of "pay per mile" tax system will be used, as it also answers part of the congestion problem.  Whether it's considered fairer is a another discussion.

I always visualised having standard batteries assemblies, maybe 3 or 4 different sizes for different size cars.  

When your battery start to get low the display in your car would indicate to you the nearest automated swap centre (old petrol station), when you accept the recommendation the swap centre expects you and is ready with a replacement battery.  You then drive over swapping station where underground machinery will swap your battery automatically for a fully charged one, the old one would then go into stock and be charged.  

You could chose to have a premium battery, say has had less than 300hr use, a standard up to 1,000hr or economy over 1,000 hours use, payment would be taken automatically.

Swap time less than 2 minutes and all electrical systems (except traction) maintained whilst you wait!  Bit like a pit stop.

Then again, maybe like CFL lamps, batteries are not the future and just a very expensive government initiative that cost the tax payers billions of pound in subsidies and grants for 3 or 4 years until the private sector comes up with the equivalent of LED lamps.

Alex Home: 
 

“Bangernomics” relies on older cars being perceived as risky purchases - few people want to take that risk hence prices are lower.  The bonus for people willing to take that risk is cheaper motoring.

The most costly risk when buying an older electric car is the condition of the battery.  In this case, as Peter suggests, a separate contract covering the use of the battery is the way forward.  If the rest of the car (notwithstanding invertors etc) is seen as less risky then I suspect that older electric cars will actually retain their values better than ICE ones, and never reach the £2000 level suggested above.

After factoring out the battery, it's possible that electric cars could have an expected lifespan of 25 years with rust and general wear and tear finishing them off. Electric cars have fewer critical rubber components (such as hoses and drive belts) than ICE cars which deteriorate with age.

Mileage should in theory be less of an issue with electric cars than ICE cars. An electric car with 300k of motorway miles will in most cases be in better condition than a car of equal age with 100k of driving over speed bumps in town.

On the other hand, a situation could occur where electronic modules are prone to failing without warning after 10 years, and are very expensive to replace with the only source of used modules being accident damaged cars. There may be cases of manufacturers offering extended warranties on electronic modules, or even insurance policies that cover the replacement of failed electronic modules.

mapj1: 
 

I find it very telling that the Japanese motorbike makers are pushing a standard replaceable battery - this has the consequence that an electric bike with a dead battery is not such a write-off as a car with a funny shaped bespoke one that may be no longer made.

Shiva had the sense to use the same model of battery for his go kart as the one used on his bicycle.

https://youtu.be/2rBahek6tQQ

If electric car manufacturers have the same sense as Shiva then they will embrace standard batteries rather than bespoke batteries that may not be available in 15 year's time.

The worst case scenario is that certain technology is deployed in order to make it difficult for battery manufacturers to create aftermarket batteries in cases where the original is discontinued, or patents and other forms of IP are deployed to legally prohibit battery manufacturers from selling aftermarket batteries.

Mike

Have recently bought a Kia Niro EV to replace our 11 year old Mitsubishi diesel. It is certainly economical, we do a low mileage, so only given it one charge in just 7 weeks. But under the bonnet you will find cooling/heating hoses - the battery needs warming in cold weather. In fact nearly as much plumbing as our previous diesel.  

The Owners Manual gives some info, https://www.kia.com/content/dam/kwcms/kme/fi/fi/assets/contents/service/service-care/help-books/english/Kia-e-Niro-English-owners-manual.pdf

If I've got it right, there is a 12-volt powered heat-pump for heating and A/C purposes, but I'm sure I've read that battery heat comes into maintaining comfort for the driver & pax.

Clive

I've regularly run my ICE vehicles from nearly new (one new) to 10 years and typically 140,000 miles. No lemons. Only once failed to complete a journey yet, well not since my very first one, which was a 76 and clearly knackered to start.

But there's a lot of general deterioration that kicks in from 80,000 on. Obviously my mileage was modest (about 15k/annum), and it was mostly cross country. Small parts fall off, minor ECUs and heat & vent & window parts fail, rubber seals go bad (and are wierdly expensive). Don't mention aircon! Odd noises & minor oil leaks. Broken bits of dashboard that are too fiddly/expensive/bothersome to replace. Suspension bushes seem to all go loose at 100k. Headlamp plastic lenses develop cataracts. Odd bits of minor rust that don't really matter, but. I spent 2 plus hours stripping & oiling the seat fold last week. None of them wore the the engine to the point of needing oil top ups, so the ICE engine may be the most durable bit.

And, my current 2009 basic/mid-market model has one airbag (out of date), primitive ABS, inefficient steering, only 5 gears, no driver aids. I do realise it would be easy to upgrade the awful radio. Noises aside, it drives ok. But would you think so? 

Far better quality and durability nowadays than my first 1976 Cortina, but still, seriously impaired in most folks eyes, by the time I discard.

So an electric car, at 10 years, 140k may be pretty shagged and devalued, even if the battery is swapped.

Comparatively market logic suggests it is well worth overhauling my 1970 bungalow, which is also… tired.

And one of my bicycles is like George Washington's axe. A continuous cycle of overhaul keeps it up to date, at a cost at least in a comparable ballpark to buying new ones. Like your thoughts on motorcycle batteries, historic standardisation aid long life.

Food for thought. 

Car buyers in recent years have had a much better deal buying 10 to 15 year old cars than they did back in the 1980s and 90s. 10 to 15 year old cars today do not rust anywhere nearly as badly as cars built in the 1970s and 80s; their technology is still reasonably modern; they are generally better equipped; have better safety and security features; and are usually more reliable without many of the niggling problems that affected older cars in bygone decades.

I can remember back in the 1990s when rusty Vauxhall Cavaliers and Austin Metros that were not even 10 years old were a common sight on roads. Cars with bodykits (half the time covering over welding repairs to corroded sills) were ubiquitous but now they are quite rare. Engines with carburettors and mechanical ignitions were a struggle to start on cold wet mornings as they aged. Cars over 10 years old lacked all the electrical toys we take for granted today and had AM only radios with knobs on them unless they were a high end model, and security features were an afterthought - like those bars that locked onto steering wheels. There was even a joke that one key fitted every Ford!

I read somewhere that despite car buyers now having a much better deal buying used cars than any time in the past, cars are on average younger in Britain today compared with most other European countries and Britain in the 1990s. The reason is the availability cheap finance. Car buyers increasingly choose to take out loans for newer cars rather than buy older cars outright. This has the effect of depressing the market, and ultimately the prices, of older cars. In many European countries, buyers will pay a handsome price for 10 to 15 year old cars in good nick, but there is an unwritten rule that once a car is 10 years old in Britain it's technically a ton of scrap metal unless it's a Rolls Royce or an Aston Martin. Even Mercedes and Porsche are not immune. Insurance companies write off most 10 year old cars even for the most minor scratch.

This scenario could impact on the electric car market. If the government concludes that the majority of people who want to buy cars over 10 years old on the cheap for their daily drive are just the poor and the stingy; people with ruined credit ratings; badge snobs; or stubborn wayward eccentrics, then it will also conclude that Mr Average does not have a need for an old banger costing under £2000 that will last at least 2 or 3 years.

By 2035 it could be the norm that electric cars are leased from manufacturers, or bought on finance with a trade in for scrap deal after 10 years, rather than owned outright. The unemployed; gig economy workers on zero hours contracts; workers with an income topped up by in-work benefits; anybody with a low credit score; and even people with criminal convictions as trivial as a Magistrate Court fine for dropping litter or their children refusing to go into school for one day, do not qualify.

Because the age of a car is clearly displayed by the registration plate all cars suffer unfair depreciation solely by the age displayed on the plate.  This doesn't happen elsewhere, the car is valued on its condition only.  

Furthermore cars less than 25 years old are no longer do-it-yourself jobs when it comes to maintenance and repair, the days of getting friendly with your local scrap dealer for parts is over.