No, the end of the world is not coming. Yet (*). However it does rather highlight the degree to which all the eggs are in one basket, in this case a basket with its handle in the Kremlin.

It is unfortunate that at the time we had vast amounts of gas in the North Sea and did not have to import the stuff, we were far too efficient at getting it out,  and sold most of it at what now looks like a bargain price. For politico idealogical reasons the vast amount of money it made us was spent as we transitioned from a manufacturing to a service economy, a decision we may well come to regret.

I for one seriously consider that we may well  over winter without the gas fired central heating that has been so cosy since the mid 1970s.

Mike

(* of course one well placed explosion on the NATO side of the line would change that.)

No, power cuts are not the end of the world. 

If we get power cuts on any significant scale I do however have significant concerns about the effect on wider society. It is now about 50 years since we last had significant power cuts on a planned or rota basis. 

A large part of todays population are simply unable to understand that a power cut means no mains electricity for anyone in the affected area for the relevant time. There seems to be a widely held and erroneous view that exemptions will be made for those with special needs.

Even some companies seem to be believe that rota power cuts will not apply to THEM. A lot of people will be in for a surprise. 

I have even met people who believe that some appliances would "have" to be left on for safety reasons "they would have to leave the heater on in babies room"  

Society is far more reliant on electricity than was the case in the 1970s. I recall many major stores remaining open during the 1970s power cuts. These days most would presumably close.

Rioting and looting are in my view probable in some areas.

So not the end of the world, but potentially serious. 

Yep back in the winter of discontent power cuts were part of life

But we don't use paraffin heaters  any more, and the local paraffin man's tanker has long gone. 

Z.

IIRC the winter of discontent and the regular power cuts were different events, some years apart.

The regular power cuts resulted from the coal miners striking and power stations running short of coal.

The winter of discontent was due to a series of strikes, largely by local authority employees. Dead unburied, rubbish piled up  etc.

As regards any future power cuts, people these days are indeed ill prepared. As already noted, most people no longer have paraffin heaters, and this fuel is no longer widely delivered in small volumes. Paraffin lamps similarly. Bottled gas heaters are available, but the gas is ALREADY in short supply and hugely expensive.

Also in the 1970s, more people seemed to have very basic electrical skills, to the extent of being able to improvise lighting from vehicle batteries or large dry cells.

Torches, and torch batteries were in very short supply. I made for friends, neighbours, and relatives, some very simple battery lights. A type 126 door bell battery with an M.E.S. batten holder. No switch needed, insert bulb to light, remove bulb to extinguish. A 3.5 volt 0.25 amp bulb gave enough light for safe movement in a large room, or permitted reading if placed close by. The 126 batteries were not used for lighting and therefore in plentiful supply.

Zoomup said:

But we don't use paraffin heaters  any more, and the local paraffin man's tanker has long gone.

As a small boy, I was fascinated by the dispensing apparatus on the side of the paraffin tanker. Now I feel very old!

I could happily survive with a coal fire, but Mrs P who comes from hotter climes expects to be able to be cozy and warm whilst lightly dressed in a 100+ year old house all winter. Fetching and carrying the coal is just too much like hard work.

The only real solution is, of course, better insulation. You can stuff that in your loft or wear it according to choice.

Russia has just cut off natural gas supplies to Latvia. Not of any DIRECT relevance to UK electricity supplies, but arguably of indirect relevance, as it will tend to increase prices of gas and increases the risk of physical shortages.

With about half of UK electricity coming from natural gas, and with very limited storage, we are very vulnerable to gas supply problems.

Germany seems to be in a panic over power cuts.

Some reports suggest that power cuts lasting two or three weeks are expected, that is most improbable in my view. Rota power cuts, with the rota in force for 2/3 weeks certainly possible, but the SAME customers being without power for weeks is unlikely.

Panic buying of food is well underway.

Yep. I lived through the 70s as a kid and remember those well. My dad installed a gas fire, which was a huge boon as we had one room we could be comfortable in around the paraffin lamp. And we has stored hot water too from a gravity fed tank. Most people, including me now, don't have that with the popularity of combi boilers.

I would say, if we had a rerun of the 70s now, there would be a lot of swearing. A lot of people are not as resilient or resourceful as they were post war. And an AWFUL lot of new housing does not even have any fireplaces.

When I renovated my current house, I made sure the kitchen/diner had a coal/wood stove - that proved handy in the 48 hour power cut we had in the storms this year. But I was running the car to recharge phones, LED lamps etc which wasn't terribly efficient (or good for the car judging by what blew out of the exhaust on the first run after).

So generator inlet going in now. Will be getting a 4kVA inverter frame genny which will live in a little ventilated sound deadened "shed". Even if we don't get the hypothesised rolling blackouts, we get enough actual power cuts here of 6 hour duration to make it not a complete waste of effort.

I was looking into this - and Merkel shut down all bar 6 of their nuclear reactors. What was more surprising was that Scholz shut down 3 more this January just gone.

I have no idea how many of those were end of life but it seems unlikely all were. They have 3 left running right now. Even those are supposed to close end of this year.